Analysis of Intra-Annual Variability of Heat Fluxes in the North Atlantic Based on Approximation of Trajectories of the Stochastic Diffusion Process

Abstract

To analyze heat fluxes, observational data for 1979–2018 were used for the North Atlantic. The spatiotemporal variability of the total heat flux was modeled using stochastic diffusion. The coefficients of the stochastic differential equation were estimated by using nonparametric statistics. Previously, the existence and uniqueness of a solution in the strong sense of the stochastic differential equation generated by the constructed diffusion process was proven when Kolmogorov’s conditions were met. In this work, the coefficients of the equation were approximated using trigonometric polynomials whose amplitudes and phases depended on the flow values. Using a given series of 40 years in length from 1979 to 2018, spatial maps and time curves were constructed. The results are shown for 1999 and 2018, and their comparative analysis is also carried out. Numerical calculations were performed on the Lomonosov-2 supercomputer at Lomonosov Moscow State University.