Assessing flood and waterlogging vulnerability and community governance in urban villages in the context of climate change: A case study of 89 urban villages in Shanghai

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2025.106377

Shijun Chen , Jiayue Lin , Tuolei Wu , Zhe Yuan , Wenting Cao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate change has increased the vulnerability of urban villages to flooding and waterlogging, making it a major challenge for government community management. This study assesses flood-waterlogging vulnerability in Shanghai's urban villages under current conditions and long-term SSP-RCP scenarios using data from 89 redevelopment communities. We identify development patterns based on clustering models, evaluate vulnerability using an ensemble learning model, and analyze climate policy attention with Python-based text mining. Results highlight significant variations in infrastructure and flood risk across urban villages with different development patterns. Suburban Growth Zones and Ecological Agricultural Zones show higher vulnerability. In the long term, most villages become more vulnerable under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, and the uncertainties and risks will increase due to cumulative effects. The study emphasizes the necessity of thorough governmental management in mitigating climate-induced waterlogging risks in urban villages and suggests specific policy recommendations customized for various categories of urban villages.

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气候变化背景下城中村洪水内涝脆弱性评估与社区治理——以上海89个城中村为例

气候变化增加了城中村对洪水和内涝的脆弱性，使其成为政府社区管理的一个重大挑战。本研究利用89个再开发社区的数据，评估了上海城中村在当前条件和长期SSP-RCP情景下的洪水内涝脆弱性。我们基于聚类模型识别发展模式，使用集成学习模型评估脆弱性，并使用基于python的文本挖掘分析气候政策关注。结果显示，不同发展模式的城中村在基础设施和洪水风险方面存在显著差异。城郊增长区和生态农业区脆弱性较高。从长期来看，大多数村庄在SSP245和SSP585情景下都变得更加脆弱，并且由于累积效应，不确定性和风险将增加。该研究强调了政府在缓解城中村气候内涝风险方面进行全面管理的必要性，并针对不同类型的城中村提出了具体的政策建议。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;