Public perceptions of climate risks, vulnerability, and adaptation strategies: Fuzzy cognitive mapping in Irish and Spanish living labs

Abstract

As Europe faces ‘extremely high’ climate risks, being the fastest warming continent on the planet, it is crucial to invest in effective climate adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable communities. Despite this, limited studies have explored the effects of climate hazards on human lives, due to the assumption that European countries have sufficient adaptive capacity and socioeconomic resources. This has hindered policymaking, as lack of data fosters uncertainty and inefficiency. This study aims to address this research gap by exploring the public perceptions of climate change in two living lab regions in Europe, namely, in Spain and Ireland. This involves using qualitative tools like surveys and interviews to collate information on the impacts of climate change on communities, studying beliefs pertaining to climate hazards and how they shape behaviours. A key objective of the study is to determine the socioeconomic vulnerability of the populations in two diverse European regions, and similar trends were found. The study also assesses the role of policymaking in building adaptive capacity, gathering local insights and exploring the role of novel nature-based solutions (NBS) in building resilience. Finally, this research uses fuzzy cognitive mapping to illustrate these complex processes and societal dynamics as part of a comprehensive systems analysis. Contrary to popular opinion, it is found that communities in Spanish and Irish regions are increasingly climate vulnerable. This study finds a relationship between experience of climate hazards and public willingness to engage in climate action, which is however, hindered by lack of effective citizen engagement policies. The increasing popularity of NBS due to their socioeconomic co-benefits is also highlighted, as is the need to contextualise adaptation strategies in local needs. Ultimately, this study offers policymakers insights on trends found between two culturally and socioeconomically diverse European regions, based in systems analysis.