Climate change and social turmoil in the late Qing Dynasty revealed by tree rings

Abstract

The Qing Dynasty marked the final epoch of China's imperial era, has not only profound historical significance but also serves as a crucial lens for examining the impacts of climate change on dynastic transitions. This study utilizes the tree-ring width chronology of Pinus bungeana Zucc from the Shennong Mountain (SNM) in Henan Province to reconstruct the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for Central China spanning 1674–2018 CE (345 years), enabling a systematic investigation of climate change's role in the Qing Dynasty's decline. Results demonstrate a strong spatial correlation between the reconstructed SPEI and the White Lotus Uprising (WLU; 1796–1804 CE) epicenters, with precise alignment with regional drought patterns. Further analysis identified four significant cycles in the wet and dry fluctuations of Central China, with periods of 2-8a, 37-38a, 71-74a, and 159-173a. The reconstructed SPEI shows a significant positive correlation with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Pacific, highlighting the strong link between hydroclimatic changes in Central China and SST variability. Of particular interest is the severe drought that occurred between 1780 and 1820 CE, which coincided with the timing of the WLU and marked the decline of the Qing Dynasty. This drought is primarily attributed to changes in SST and the position of the North Pacific Subtropical High, underscoring the substantial impact of this climatic feature on regional moisture. Our reconstruction offers a novel perspective for assessing the impact of climate change on historical socio-economic conditions, and enhances our understanding of the interplay between climate change and the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties.