Where to replant - prioritising revegetation based on site suitability and ecological outcomes

Abstract

To achieve target 2 of the Montreal-Kunming global biodiversity framework, to restore 30 % of all degraded ecosystems, there is a pressing need to better understand spatial priorities for restoration at global, regional, and local scales. Using the low rainfall region of the Midlands, Tasmania, this paper demonstrates the utility of participatory planning and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) as tools for systematically planning local and regional revegetation works. Our analysis includes five biophysical factors related to establishment success (rainfall, aspect, topographical exposure, available water capacity, and topographical wetness) and four factors relating to ecological conservation (distance to protected areas, distance to remnant vegetation, riparian zones, and connectivity). In a participatory setting, three planning scenarios were developed and tested (Biophysical only, landscape-scale ecosystem restoration and conservation only, and a mixed approach balancing all factors). The mixed approach (Scenario three) was the stakeholder preferred scenario as it strikes a balance between identifying sites most in need of revegetation for conservation purposes, while maximising chance of planting success. Using scenario 3, we derive a map of the top 30 % priority area for restoration, theoretically illustrating what translating the global restoration target to a local scale might look like. We found that 3189.5 ha are identified as a high or very high priority under all three scenarios, and sites along water courses also consistently exhibit a higher priority. This paper demonstrates how participatory restoration prioritisation using multi criteria analysis can be used to guide local cost-effective restoration action that delivers on national and global targets.