Analysis on the acceptance of coal phase-out policy considering public preferences: Policy implications and future direction based on empirical evidence from South Korea

Abstract

The urgency of coal phase-out has intensified as countries strive to mitigate climate change and achieve carbon neutrality. However, various conflicts may arise during policy implementation, and public acceptance can vary significantly depending on how policies are designed to address these challenges. This study investigates public preferences for coal phase-out policies in South Korea using a discrete choice experiment and simulates the acceptance rates of different policy options based on these preferences. Policy attributes included in the choice experiment are the capacity of decommissioned coal-fired power plants, plant locations, the utilization plan of idle power plant sites, the remaining period until decommissioning, labor conversion rates, and monthly electricity bill increases. Preference analysis indicates that the public prefers decommissioning coal-fired power plants located in the East Sea region and repurposing them into renewable energy power plants. Our simulation analysis reveals that, due to the differing electricity cost increases under each repurposing option, public acceptance declines as decommissioned capacity increases when power plants are repurposed into renewable energy facilities or LNG-combined cycle plants, whereas acceptance of cultural complexes rises. This study further simulates public acceptance for 15 coal-fired power plants in various location and determines the phase-out preference ranking for each plant. Lastly, higher labor conversion rates among the coal workforce can enhance public acceptance of the coal phase-out policy. Overall findings of this study highlight the importance of designing coal phase-out policies that account for economic and social aspects to ensure a balanced and effective just transition.