Evaluating nonresponse and non-sampling error trends in election studies

IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Hafsteinn Einarsson, Agnar Freyr Helgason
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Political scientists rely on election studies as high-quality sources of data on voting behavior and attitudes. However, despite a cross-national trend of declining response rates over time and a lively debate regarding the accuracy of pre-election polls, data quality in election studies is an underdiscussed topic. In this paper, we address this research gap by focusing on trends in survey participation and non-sampling errors over time using data from the Icelandic National Election Study over a period spanning nearly four decades (1983–2021). We find that response rates have halved in the period under study (from around 70 % to 36 %), caused by increasing noncontact rates. Focusing on sample composition, we find that response rates have declined more among young adults and those without university degrees than other sample subgroups. To assess non-sampling error trends, we propose a simple metric based on the mean average error (MAE), which accounts for the number of parties and the sample size. Surprisingly, we find that despite decreasing response rates, the MAE has not increased, and for most elections, we cannot rule out sampling error alone as the explanation for the MAE. Finally, we show that adjustment weights have small and inconsistent effects on the MAE, suggesting that the auxiliary information available in the Icelandic context lacks the strong correlations needed to reduce error in the estimation of vote choice. We conclude with a discussion of these findings, their implications, and some guidance for practitioners seeking to evaluate data quality that can inform changes to the design of election studies.
评估选举研究中的非响应和非抽样误差趋势
政治学家依靠选举研究作为投票行为和态度的高质量数据来源。然而,尽管随着时间的推移,回复率呈跨国下降趋势,关于选举前民意调查准确性的辩论也很激烈,但选举研究中的数据质量仍是一个未被充分讨论的话题。在本文中,我们通过使用冰岛全国选举研究近四十年(1983-2021)的数据,关注调查参与和非抽样误差随时间的趋势来解决这一研究差距。我们发现,在研究期间,由于不接触率的增加,回复率下降了一半(从大约70%降至36%)。关注样本组成,我们发现年轻人和没有大学学位的人的回复率比其他样本亚组下降得更多。为了评估非抽样误差趋势,我们提出了一个基于平均误差(MAE)的简单度量,它考虑了参与方的数量和样本量。令人惊讶的是,我们发现尽管回答率下降,MAE并没有增加,而且对于大多数选举,我们不能排除抽样误差单独作为MAE的解释。最后,我们表明调整权重对MAE的影响很小且不一致,这表明冰岛背景下可用的辅助信息缺乏减少投票选择估计误差所需的强相关性。最后,我们讨论了这些发现及其影响,并为寻求评估数据质量的从业者提供了一些指导,这些数据质量可以为选举研究设计的变化提供信息。
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来源期刊
Electoral Studies
Electoral Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
82
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Electoral Studies is an international journal covering all aspects of voting, the central act in the democratic process. Political scientists, economists, sociologists, game theorists, geographers, contemporary historians and lawyers have common, and overlapping, interests in what causes voters to act as they do, and the consequences. Electoral Studies provides a forum for these diverse approaches. It publishes fully refereed papers, both theoretical and empirical, on such topics as relationships between votes and seats, and between election outcomes and politicians reactions; historical, sociological, or geographical correlates of voting behaviour; rational choice analysis of political acts, and critiques of such analyses.
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