Evaluation of long-term hydrological droughts in Turkey's Eastern Black Sea Basin

IF 3 3区地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI:10.1016/j.pce.2025.103946

Tolga Barış Terzi, Osman Üçüncü

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Abstract

Drought is a complex and multifaceted natural hazard that poses significant risks to ecosystems, economies, and societies. With the intensification of climate change, the frequency and severity of drought events are expected to rise, amplifying their detrimental effects. This study addresses hydrological drought in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) in Turkey, a region characterized by high precipitation but largely understudied in terms of drought vulnerability. The Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) is employed to assess the drought characteristics across six different hydrological stations in the basin between 1965 and 2011. The sensitivity of the SSFI to the selected probability distribution functions (PDF) was assessed, with Generalized Logistic distribution identified as the most suitable model for the EBSB. The results reveal not only basin-wide drought events but also significant spatial variability in drought severity, particularly during the droughts of 1969–1971, 1994, and 2001. This highlights the region's susceptibility to severe droughts, despite its overall wet climate. The findings underscore the necessity of implementing integrated drought monitoring systems and developing proactive water resource management strategies to mitigate future risks. This study offers new insights into hydrological drought in the EBSB, providing a foundation for future research on drought monitoring and adaptation strategies in similar climates.

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来源期刊

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

2.70%

发文量

176

审稿时长

31.6 weeks

期刊介绍： Physics and Chemistry of the Earth is an international interdisciplinary journal for the rapid publication of collections of refereed communications in separate thematic issues, either stemming from scientific meetings, or, especially compiled for the occasion. There is no restriction on the length of articles published in the journal. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth incorporates the separate Parts A, B and C which existed until the end of 2001. Please note: the Editors are unable to consider submissions that are not invited or linked to a thematic issue. Please do not submit unsolicited papers. The journal covers the following subject areas: -Solid Earth and Geodesy: (geology, geochemistry, tectonophysics, seismology, volcanology, palaeomagnetism and rock magnetism, electromagnetism and potential fields, marine and environmental geosciences as well as geodesy). -Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere: (hydrology and water resources research, engineering and management, oceanography and oceanic chemistry, shelf, sea, lake and river sciences, meteorology and atmospheric sciences incl. chemistry as well as climatology and glaciology). -Solar-Terrestrial and Planetary Science: (solar, heliospheric and solar-planetary sciences, geology, geophysics and atmospheric sciences of planets, satellites and small bodies as well as cosmochemistry and exobiology).