Evaluation of long-term hydrological droughts in Turkey's Eastern Black Sea Basin

IF 3 3区地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI:10.1016/j.pce.2025.103946

Tolga Barış Terzi, Osman Üçüncü

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Drought is a complex and multifaceted natural hazard that poses significant risks to ecosystems, economies, and societies. With the intensification of climate change, the frequency and severity of drought events are expected to rise, amplifying their detrimental effects. This study addresses hydrological drought in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) in Turkey, a region characterized by high precipitation but largely understudied in terms of drought vulnerability. The Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) is employed to assess the drought characteristics across six different hydrological stations in the basin between 1965 and 2011. The sensitivity of the SSFI to the selected probability distribution functions (PDF) was assessed, with Generalized Logistic distribution identified as the most suitable model for the EBSB. The results reveal not only basin-wide drought events but also significant spatial variability in drought severity, particularly during the droughts of 1969–1971, 1994, and 2001. This highlights the region's susceptibility to severe droughts, despite its overall wet climate. The findings underscore the necessity of implementing integrated drought monitoring systems and developing proactive water resource management strategies to mitigate future risks. This study offers new insights into hydrological drought in the EBSB, providing a foundation for future research on drought monitoring and adaptation strategies in similar climates.

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土耳其东黑海盆地长期水文干旱评估

干旱是一种复杂的、多方面的自然灾害，对生态系统、经济和社会构成重大风险。随着气候变化的加剧，预计干旱事件的频率和严重程度将上升，从而扩大其有害影响。本研究解决了土耳其东黑海盆地（EBSB）的水文干旱问题，该地区以高降水为特征，但在干旱脆弱性方面研究不足。采用标准化流指数（SSFI）对流域6个不同水文站1965 - 2011年的干旱特征进行了评价。评估了SSFI对所选概率分布函数（PDF）的敏感性，并确定广义Logistic分布是最适合EBSB的模型。结果表明，干旱事件不仅在流域范围内发生，而且在干旱严重程度上存在显著的空间变异，特别是在1969-1971年、1994年和2001年的干旱期间。这凸显了该地区对严重干旱的易感性，尽管其整体气候湿润。研究结果强调了实施综合干旱监测系统和制定前瞻性水资源管理战略以减轻未来风险的必要性。本研究提供了新的认识，为今后类似气候条件下的干旱监测和适应策略研究提供了基础。

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来源期刊

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

2.70%

发文量

176

审稿时长

31.6 weeks

期刊介绍： Physics and Chemistry of the Earth is an international interdisciplinary journal for the rapid publication of collections of refereed communications in separate thematic issues, either stemming from scientific meetings, or, especially compiled for the occasion. There is no restriction on the length of articles published in the journal. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth incorporates the separate Parts A, B and C which existed until the end of 2001. Please note: the Editors are unable to consider submissions that are not invited or linked to a thematic issue. Please do not submit unsolicited papers. The journal covers the following subject areas: -Solid Earth and Geodesy: (geology, geochemistry, tectonophysics, seismology, volcanology, palaeomagnetism and rock magnetism, electromagnetism and potential fields, marine and environmental geosciences as well as geodesy). -Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere: (hydrology and water resources research, engineering and management, oceanography and oceanic chemistry, shelf, sea, lake and river sciences, meteorology and atmospheric sciences incl. chemistry as well as climatology and glaciology). -Solar-Terrestrial and Planetary Science: (solar, heliospheric and solar-planetary sciences, geology, geophysics and atmospheric sciences of planets, satellites and small bodies as well as cosmochemistry and exobiology).