The process and prediction of school completion: A six-year longitudinal examination

Abstract

This study investigated the process and prediction of school completion among a sample of 9,151 Australian secondary students. Although research indicates that various factors are associated with school completion, most studies have been short-term or limited in scope, leaving gaps in understanding about which factors throughout secondary school are salient for school completion. This study aims to fill those gaps by examining perceived teaching support in Year 7 as a predictor of personal attributes in Year 9 (perceived competence, valuing, growth goals, and academic skills) and, in turn, intentions in Year 10 (completion intentions, university intentions, vocational education and training [VET] intentions). All factors were then examined as predictors of school completion in Year 12. Results indicated key associations in the model: perceived teaching support (Year 7) predicted perceived competence, valuing, and growth goals in Year 9; all personal resources (Year 9) predicted at least one of the Year 10 intentions and most associations were positive; and, academic skills, completion intentions and university intentions predicted Year 12 school completion. In subsidiary analyses, we also tested how the factors were associated across three different geographic locations: rural, regional, and city areas. These subsidiary results indicated many similarities with the main model, along with some notable differences across locations. Findings hold implications for efforts aimed at supporting secondary school pathways to school completion in general and across different geographic locations.