Investigating the heterogeneity of driving mechanisms and multi-dimensional policy pathways in ecosystem service supply-demand relationships: a case study of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration

Abstract

Rapid urbanization exacerbates the challenges associated with the sustainable management of ecosystem services (ESSM). This study selected eight core municipalities in the initial stages of the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration as case study sites, developing a comprehensive analytical framework by integrating the InVEST and GTWR models with various quantitative techniques, including LISA, RDA, and SOM. Centering on the ecological supply-demand ratio (ESDR), this framework was employed to uncover the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns of the complex challenges in ESSM, along with their driving factors, and summarized the experiences and limitations of existing policy pathways and urban development models, offering multi-level optimization recommendations. The results indicated that the principal challenges in ESSM within the study area were characterized by a general decline in surplus levels and a pronounced increase in spatial mismatches. The primary drivers of these issues were Pop and the proportion of blue-green space (P_bgs). The driving force of Pop on each ESDR, excluding ESDR_FP, decreased within a range of 17.14 %–49.21 %, while the driving force of P_bgs on each ESDR, excluding ESDR_WY, decreased within a range of 18.51 %–191.83 %. The clustering types and functional characteristics of ESDR demonstrated significant variation across spatial scales. Specifically, the development path at the municipal level remained highly stable, while at the district-county level, a significant transformation occurred, resulting in an overall 13.55 % improvement in the policy alignment of the study area. Our research framework developed a differentiated regulatory strategy by integrating the multi-scale perspective of natural spatial patterns and administrative boundaries, thereby expanding conventional approaches to ESSM. This framework facilitated the achievement of supply-demand equilibrium and equitable distribution of ecosystem services across multiple scales, offering significant theoretical and practical implications for urban agglomerations, both within the Shandong Peninsula and beyond.