Animal rabies in the Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia (2012–2024): Descriptive and predictive epidemiological analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study was to reveal spatiotemporal patterns of emergence of rabies cases in various animals in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (a region in the center of the European part of the Russian Federation) from 2012 to 2024, and to identify areas with the highest exposure to the disease using regression models and time series analysis. During the study period, a total of 676 cases of rabies were registered, with 60.10 % among wild species, 31.52 % among domestic (companion) animals, and 7.51 % among livestock animals. The transmission of rabies in the study area is especially driven by wild animals, particularly the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Livestock forms a separate population that hardly can present a link of the rabies virus transmission but rather may be sought as an indicator of the virus presence in animals. A regression model with a good predictive power (R²=0.63) revealed the number of settlements, population density, population size of foxes and road length as the main explanatory factors for the number of cases of rabies by administrative units. ARIMA, which stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, was used for short-term time-series-based forecasting of animal rabies cases in the districts of the Nizhny Novgorod region. According to the ARIMA forecast, the number of rabies cases among all animals is expected to be 6–23, and particularly up to 15 cases in foxes for the season throughout 2025. This study provides important epidemiological information for veterinary services, including an expected number of animal rabies cases by population. This information may be of some interest in the planning of vaccination strategies.