Up in the air: How do carbon policy shocks affect air travel?

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.003

Juan-Francisco Albert , Nerea Gómez-Fernández , David Boto-García

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Abstract

This study assesses the impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on air travel demand and supply in Europe. Using vector autoregression (VAR) methodology enriched with an external instrument, we analyse how carbon pricing shocks affect passenger numbers on domestic, intra-EU, and extra-EU flights across Europe, alongside examining the effect on the number of flights. This is done for the EU as a whole, and separately for Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain. We document significant reductions in domestic and intra-EU flights, while extra-EU flights are not found to be affected by carbon price shocks. Moreover, we show that carbon pricing policies lead to significant increases in air transportation prices. Overall, flight frequency is found to decrease more than passenger numbers, indicating airlines' strategic adjustments to mitigate carbon-related costs while maintaining operational efficiency. Our study emphasizes the importance of understanding these effects for informing future policy decisions and business practices in the aviation industry.

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在空中：碳政策冲击如何影响航空旅行？

本研究评估了欧盟排放交易计划（EU ETS）对欧洲航空旅行需求和供给的影响。我们使用富含外部工具的向量自回归（VAR）方法，分析了碳定价冲击如何影响欧洲国内、欧盟内部和欧盟外部航班的乘客数量，同时还研究了对航班数量的影响。我们对整个欧盟以及德国、英国、法国、意大利和西班牙分别进行了分析。我们记录了国内和欧盟内部航班的大幅减少，而欧盟外部航班并未受到碳价格冲击的影响。此外，我们还发现碳定价政策导致航空运输价格大幅上涨。总体而言，我们发现航班频率的下降幅度大于乘客数量的下降幅度，这表明航空公司在保持运营效率的同时进行了战略调整，以降低与碳相关的成本。我们的研究强调了了解这些影响对航空业未来政策决策和商业实践的重要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.