An examination of rhetoric in relation to China's renewable energy plans in light of the dual-carbon aims

Abstract

China's ambitious Dual-Carbon objectives aim to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, yet the alignment between policy rhetoric and actual implementation remains uncertain. While the government has emphasized renewable energy investments and sustainability narratives, challenges persist in policy enforcement, regional disparities, and the effectiveness of local government initiatives. This study examines China's renewable energy policies from 2000 to 2023, employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model across 30 provinces to assess the relationship between renewable energy technological innovation, local government competition, and carbon emissions reduction. The empirical findings reveal that renewable energy technology innovation significantly reduces carbon emissions, but its effectiveness varies regionally, with stronger impacts observed in highly marketized eastern provinces compared to central and western regions. Additionally, local government innovation competition enhances the carbon reduction effects of renewable energy investments, whereas economic competition weakens policy effectiveness by prioritizing short-term industrial growth over long-term sustainability goals. The results also indicate that energy consumption intensity and urbanization rates contribute to rising emissions, suggesting that renewable energy expansion alone is insufficient without comprehensive grid modernization and energy efficiency improvements. Furthermore, policy rhetoric on renewable energy has improved over time, yet inconsistencies in execution persist, particularly in less marketized regions where institutional and financial constraints hinder policy outcomes. These findings highlight the need for stronger policy enforcement, regional coordination, and targeted incentives to bridge the gap between rhetoric and practice, ensuring a more effective and equitable transition to a low-carbon economy.