Cost reduction analysis for sustainable ethylene production technologies

IF 7.1 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments Pub Date : 2025-04-13 DOI:10.1016/j.seta.2025.104306

Daniela Anahi Toribio-Ramirez , Remko J. Detz , André Faaij , Bob van der Zwaan

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Abstract

Production of ethylene, one of the main petrochemicals, remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, both as energy source and as feedstock. Several strategies and options are being considered to decarbonize and defossilize ethylene production. So far, no studies exist that provide quantitative insights into how to accelerate the development and deployment of new ethylene technologies. The aim of this work is to determine under which technological learning and market deployment conditions renewable ethylene production technologies can become cost competitive by 2050. To meet this goal, six new ethylene production technologies are analyzed: electric cracking, ethanol dehydration, oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), dimethyl-ether-to-olefins (DMETO), methanol-to-olefins (MTO), and CO₂ electrolysis. We find that renewable ethylene is 3–9 times more expensive than the current average market price of ethylene. A three-level framework (with technology, process, and system as dimensions) to analyze cost reductions is applied and nine different cost projections for 2050 based on different learning rates and deployment scenarios are shown. Feedstock prices as low as 230€/t are required, to achieve the most optimistic projected cost of ethylene produced via electric cracking of synthetic naphtha (480€/t). Ethylene produced from synthetic MTO could cost 1030€/t by 2050, contingent on a price of synthetic methanol of around 450-475€/t. Achieving a projected ethylene cost from OCM of 529€/t remains challenging, even with low synthetic natural gas prices and state-of-the art technology. Ethylene from CO₂ electrolysis has a projected cost of 1660€/t in 2050. Even with low electricity prices (5€/MWh) and state-of-the-art technology, this projection remains practically unattainable. Ethylene production from synthetic DMETO or synthetic ethanol dehydration does not achieve cost competitiveness in 2050, as the costs reach 1250€/t and 1100€/t, respectively.

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可持续乙烯生产技术的成本降低分析

乙烯是主要石化产品之一，其生产仍然严重依赖化石燃料，无论是作为能源还是作为原料。为实现乙烯生产的去碳化和非化石化，目前正在考虑若干战略和方案。迄今为止，还没有任何研究能就如何加快开发和应用新型乙烯技术提供定量见解。这项工作的目的是确定在何种技术学习和市场部署条件下，可再生乙烯生产技术能够在 2050 年前具有成本竞争力。为实现这一目标，我们分析了六种新型乙烯生产技术：电裂解、乙醇脱水、甲烷氧化偶联（OCM）、二甲醚制烯烃（DMETO）、甲醇制烯烃（MTO）和二氧化碳电解。我们发现，可再生乙烯的价格是目前乙烯平均市场价格的 3-9 倍。我们采用了一个三级框架（以技术、工艺和系统为维度）来分析成本降低情况，并根据不同的学习率和部署方案对 2050 年的九种不同成本进行了预测。要实现通过合成石脑油电裂解生产乙烯的最乐观预测成本（480 欧元/吨），需要低至 230 欧元/吨的原料价格。到 2050 年，如果合成甲醇的价格约为 450-475 欧元/吨，那么用合成 MTO 生产乙烯的成本为 1030 欧元/吨。即使合成天然气价格低廉、技术先进，要使单体氯乙烯生产乙烯的成本预计达到 529 欧元/吨仍具有挑战性。预计到 2050 年，二氧化碳电解乙烯的成本为 1660 欧元/吨。即使在低电价（5 欧元/兆瓦时）和最先进技术的条件下，这一预测也几乎无法实现。用合成 DMETO 或合成乙醇脱水法生产乙烯在 2050 年无法实现成本竞争力，因为成本分别达到 1250 欧元/吨和 1100 欧元/吨。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments Energy-Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

12.50%

发文量

1091

期刊介绍： Encouraging a transition to a sustainable energy future is imperative for our world. Technologies that enable this shift in various sectors like transportation, heating, and power systems are of utmost importance. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments welcomes papers focusing on a range of aspects and levels of technological advancements in energy generation and utilization. The aim is to reduce the negative environmental impact associated with energy production and consumption, spanning from laboratory experiments to real-world applications in the commercial sector.