Identifying and Quantifying the Impact of Climatic and Non-Climatic Drivers on River Discharge in Europe

Abstract

Our water resources have changed over the last century through a combination of water management evolution and climate change. Understanding and decomposing the drivers of discharge changes is essential to preparing and planning adaptive strategies. To separate the response of catchment dynamics between climate change-related and other factors in discharge observations, we propose a methodology to compare discharge observations to discharge from a physically based model. The novelty lies in the fact that, to keep the comparison pertinent despite systematic biases in physically based model outputs, we compare both systems using a common framework of interpretation, a parsimonious model, which allows us to isolate trends in catchment dynamics from trends due to average changes in annual climate variables. The modeled system stands as the reference to reproduce changes only due to evolving climate dynamics. Comparing it to the interpretation framework applied to the observation system highlights the effect of the non-modeled factors on catchment dynamics and discharge, such as human intervention in rivers and water uptakes. We show that over Europe, especially in the South, the dominant explanations for discharge trends are non-climatic factors. Still, in some catchments of Northern Europe, climate change seems to be the dominating driver of change. We hypothesize that the dominating non-climatic factors are irrigation development, groundwater pumping and other human water usage. These results show the importance of including non-climatic factors in physically based models to understand the main drivers of discharge better and accurately project future changes.