The dynamics of wild Vitis species in response to climate change facilitate the breeding of grapevine and its rootstocks with climate resilience

IF 8.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Mengyan Zhang, Xiaodong Xu, Tianhao Zhang, Zhenya Liu, Xingyi Wang, Xiaoya Shi, Wenjing Peng, Xu Wang, Zhuyifu Chen, Ruoyan Zhao, Wenrui Wang, Yi Zhang, Zhongxin Jin, Yongfeng Zhou, Zhiyao Ma
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Abstract

Climate change presents significant challenges to agricultural suitability and food security, largely due to the limited adaptability of domesticated crops. However, crop wild relatives maintain greater diversity and are well-adapted to various environments. This study evaluates the potential distributional responses of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) and its wild relatives (Vitis spp.) to future climate change using the maximum entropy model. We reveal that the annual mean temperature is the primary factor determining the potential distribution of cultivated grapes. By 2080, under the SSP585 scenario, suitable areas for wine and table grapes are predicted to decline by 1.5 million km2 and 1.3 million km2, respectively. The results suggest that grape cultivation, especially for table grapes, is highly vulnerable to future climate change. In contrast, approximately 70% of wild grapes are projected to demonstrate robust adaptability to future conditions. For example, North American wild grapes like V. rotundifolia and V. labrusca, as well as East Asian wild grapes such as V. heyneana and V. davidii, are projected to demonstrate significant adaptability to response future climate change. These wild grapes are valuable genetic resources for improving the resilience of cultivated grapes through rootstock development and breeding programs to face the climate change. Our results predict the potential future distribution areas of wild grapes and highlight the critical role of their genetic resources in grape breeding for promoting adaptation to climate change.
野生葡萄品种对气候变化的动态响应促进了葡萄及其砧木的气候适应性育种
气候变化对农业适宜性和粮食安全提出了重大挑战,这主要是由于驯化作物的适应性有限。然而,作物野生近缘种保持了更大的多样性,并能很好地适应各种环境。本文利用最大熵模型评价了葡萄及其野生近缘种(Vitis spp.)对未来气候变化的潜在分布响应。我们发现年平均温度是决定栽培葡萄潜在分布的主要因素。在SSP585情景下,到2080年,葡萄酒和鲜食葡萄适宜种植面积预计将分别减少150万平方公里和130万平方公里。结果表明,葡萄种植,尤其是鲜食葡萄,极易受到未来气候变化的影响。相比之下,大约70%的野生葡萄预计对未来的条件表现出强大的适应性。例如,北美野生葡萄如圆叶葡萄(V. rotdifolia)和拉布斯卡葡萄(V. labrusca),以及东亚野生葡萄如海内葡萄(V. heyneana)和戴维葡萄(V. davdii)预计将显示出对未来气候变化的显著适应性。这些野生葡萄是通过砧木发育和育种计划提高栽培葡萄抵御气候变化能力的宝贵遗传资源。我们的研究结果预测了未来野生葡萄的潜在分布区域,并强调了其遗传资源在葡萄育种中促进适应气候变化的关键作用。
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来源期刊
Horticulture Research
Horticulture Research Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology-Biochemistry
CiteScore
11.20
自引率
6.90%
发文量
367
审稿时长
20 weeks
期刊介绍: Horticulture Research, an open access journal affiliated with Nanjing Agricultural University, has achieved the prestigious ranking of number one in the Horticulture category of the Journal Citation Reports ™ from Clarivate, 2022. As a leading publication in the field, the journal is dedicated to disseminating original research articles, comprehensive reviews, insightful perspectives, thought-provoking comments, and valuable correspondence articles and letters to the editor. Its scope encompasses all vital aspects of horticultural plants and disciplines, such as biotechnology, breeding, cellular and molecular biology, evolution, genetics, inter-species interactions, physiology, and the origination and domestication of crops.
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