{"title":"The dynamics of wild Vitis species in response to climate change facilitate the breeding of grapevine and its rootstocks with climate resilience","authors":"Mengyan Zhang, Xiaodong Xu, Tianhao Zhang, Zhenya Liu, Xingyi Wang, Xiaoya Shi, Wenjing Peng, Xu Wang, Zhuyifu Chen, Ruoyan Zhao, Wenrui Wang, Yi Zhang, Zhongxin Jin, Yongfeng Zhou, Zhiyao Ma","doi":"10.1093/hr/uhaf104","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Climate change presents significant challenges to agricultural suitability and food security, largely due to the limited adaptability of domesticated crops. However, crop wild relatives maintain greater diversity and are well-adapted to various environments. This study evaluates the potential distributional responses of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) and its wild relatives (Vitis spp.) to future climate change using the maximum entropy model. We reveal that the annual mean temperature is the primary factor determining the potential distribution of cultivated grapes. By 2080, under the SSP585 scenario, suitable areas for wine and table grapes are predicted to decline by 1.5 million km2 and 1.3 million km2, respectively. The results suggest that grape cultivation, especially for table grapes, is highly vulnerable to future climate change. In contrast, approximately 70% of wild grapes are projected to demonstrate robust adaptability to future conditions. For example, North American wild grapes like V. rotundifolia and V. labrusca, as well as East Asian wild grapes such as V. heyneana and V. davidii, are projected to demonstrate significant adaptability to response future climate change. These wild grapes are valuable genetic resources for improving the resilience of cultivated grapes through rootstock development and breeding programs to face the climate change. Our results predict the potential future distribution areas of wild grapes and highlight the critical role of their genetic resources in grape breeding for promoting adaptation to climate change.","PeriodicalId":13179,"journal":{"name":"Horticulture Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Horticulture Research","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/hr/uhaf104","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Climate change presents significant challenges to agricultural suitability and food security, largely due to the limited adaptability of domesticated crops. However, crop wild relatives maintain greater diversity and are well-adapted to various environments. This study evaluates the potential distributional responses of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) and its wild relatives (Vitis spp.) to future climate change using the maximum entropy model. We reveal that the annual mean temperature is the primary factor determining the potential distribution of cultivated grapes. By 2080, under the SSP585 scenario, suitable areas for wine and table grapes are predicted to decline by 1.5 million km2 and 1.3 million km2, respectively. The results suggest that grape cultivation, especially for table grapes, is highly vulnerable to future climate change. In contrast, approximately 70% of wild grapes are projected to demonstrate robust adaptability to future conditions. For example, North American wild grapes like V. rotundifolia and V. labrusca, as well as East Asian wild grapes such as V. heyneana and V. davidii, are projected to demonstrate significant adaptability to response future climate change. These wild grapes are valuable genetic resources for improving the resilience of cultivated grapes through rootstock development and breeding programs to face the climate change. Our results predict the potential future distribution areas of wild grapes and highlight the critical role of their genetic resources in grape breeding for promoting adaptation to climate change.
期刊介绍:
Horticulture Research, an open access journal affiliated with Nanjing Agricultural University, has achieved the prestigious ranking of number one in the Horticulture category of the Journal Citation Reports ™ from Clarivate, 2022. As a leading publication in the field, the journal is dedicated to disseminating original research articles, comprehensive reviews, insightful perspectives, thought-provoking comments, and valuable correspondence articles and letters to the editor. Its scope encompasses all vital aspects of horticultural plants and disciplines, such as biotechnology, breeding, cellular and molecular biology, evolution, genetics, inter-species interactions, physiology, and the origination and domestication of crops.