The dynamics of wild Vitis species in response to climate change facilitate the breeding of grapevine and its rootstocks with climate resilience

Abstract

Climate change presents significant challenges to agricultural suitability and food security, largely due to the limited adaptability of domesticated crops. However, crop wild relatives maintain greater diversity and are well-adapted to various environments. This study evaluates the potential distributional responses of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) and its wild relatives (Vitis spp.) to future climate change using the maximum entropy model. We reveal that the annual mean temperature is the primary factor determining the potential distribution of cultivated grapes. By 2080, under the SSP585 scenario, suitable areas for wine and table grapes are predicted to decline by 1.5 million km2 and 1.3 million km2, respectively. The results suggest that grape cultivation, especially for table grapes, is highly vulnerable to future climate change. In contrast, approximately 70% of wild grapes are projected to demonstrate robust adaptability to future conditions. For example, North American wild grapes like V. rotundifolia and V. labrusca, as well as East Asian wild grapes such as V. heyneana and V. davidii, are projected to demonstrate significant adaptability to response future climate change. These wild grapes are valuable genetic resources for improving the resilience of cultivated grapes through rootstock development and breeding programs to face the climate change. Our results predict the potential future distribution areas of wild grapes and highlight the critical role of their genetic resources in grape breeding for promoting adaptation to climate change.