Cognitive consistency and preferences for alternative fuel vehicles: A latent class model

Abstract

Long-term decisions, such as electric vehicle purchases, typically involve assessing complex interactions among several cognitive components. These psychological constructs are often a source of heterogeneity in the preferences for instrumental attributes. In this paper, we analyse vehicle fuel type choices using a latent class-discrete choice model where attitudinal and emotional appraisals of the electric vehicle purchase decision influence both class membership and preferences within each class. The model is estimated using data from a stated choice experiment and an attitudinal questionnaire. Attitudinal and emotional outputs come from the hot coherence (HOTCO) model, where motivation and behavioural response interact with each other to produce a consistent assessment. Our results reveal three distinct user segments in the sample – potential innovators, laggards, and sceptics, with markedly different purchase motives, preference parameters, and decision-making profiles. The HOTCO attributes help identifying the cognitive aspects that shape decision-making which is beneficial for effective policy design.