Discerning changes in carbon emission intensity of cultivated land utilization since agricultural green transformation: Based on the motivation-opportunity-ability (MOA) framework

Abstract

Dynamic changes in the carbon emission intensity of cultivated land utilization (CEICLU) have important impacts on food security and “dual carbon” goals. We used benchmark regression models, Moran's index, and spatial Durbin's model to explore the impact and spatial effects of agricultural green transformation (AGT) on China's major grain-producing areas (MGPA), major grain-selling areas (MGSA), and production and sales balance areas (PASBA) on CEICLU from 2006 to 2022. The motivation-opportunity-ability (MOA) analysis framework provides a comprehensive approach to explain the mechanism and construct indicators from the perspective of cultivated land production entities (CLPEs). Our results showed that (1) from 2006 to 2022, China's AGTL increased from 0.168 to 0.336. The spatial differences in AGTL are significant, with those in the MGSA being the greatest, followed by those in the MGPA and PASBA. (2) The increase in carbon emissions from cultivated land use in China slowed, while that in the CEICLU decreased from 2.345 t/10⁴ yuan to 0.717 t/10⁴ yuan. The MGPA, MGSA and PASBA showed a downward trend in the CEICLU district. (3) The increase in AGTL in China significantly inhibited CEICLU. The inhibitory effect shows a decreasing pattern of MGSA, MGPA, and PASBA between regions. (4) There was a significant spatial spillover effect of Chinese AGTL on the inhibitory effect of CEICLU. This spillover effect is crucial in the MGPA and PASBA but not in the MGSA. Based on the results, a policy reference is provided for the differentiated regulation of the low-carbon utilization behavior of the CLPE in different food production areas.