Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study

IF 7.6 Q1 ONCOLOGY

Journal of the National Cancer Center Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jncc.2024.11.004

Weigang Miao, Yuanyuan Feng, Bijia Jiang, Yanan Wan, Xikang Fan, Renqiang Han, Jinyi Zhou

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Abstract

Objective

Esophageal cancer has made a great contribution to the cancer burden in Jiangsu Province, East China. This study was aimed at reporting esophageal cancer incidence trend in 2009–2019 and its prediction to 2030.

Methods

The burden of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu in 2019 was estimated using 54 cancer registries’ data selected from Jiangsu Cancer Registry. Incident cases of 16 cancer registries were applied for the temporal trend from 2009 to 2019. The burden of esophageal cancer by 2030 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.

Results

About 24,886 new cases of esophageal cancer (17,233 males and 7,653 females) occurred in Jiangsu in 2019. Rural regions of Jiangsu had the highest incidence rate. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, per 100,000 population) of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu decreased from 27.72 per 100,000 in 2009 to 14.18 per 100,000 in 2019. The BAPC model showed that the ASIR would decline from 13.01 per 100,000 in 2020 to 4.88 per 100,000 in 2030.

Conclusions

According to the data, esophageal cancer incidence rates were predicted to decline until 2030, yet the disease burden is still significant in Jiangsu. The existing approaches to prevention and control are effective and need to be maintained.

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江苏省食管癌发病率趋势预测：贝叶斯模型研究

目的食管癌在江苏省癌症负担中占很大比重。本研究旨在报告2009-2019年食管癌发病率趋势及到2030年的预测。方法选取江苏省肿瘤登记处的54个癌症登记处的数据，对2019年江苏省食管癌负担进行估算。采用16个癌症登记处的发病个案作为2009年至2019年的时间趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测到2030年食管癌的负担。结果2019年江苏省食管癌新发病例24886例，其中男性17233例，女性7653例。江苏农村地区发病率最高。江苏省食管癌年龄标准化发病率（ASIR，每10万人）由2009年的27.72 / 10万下降到2019年的14.18 / 10万。BAPC模型显示，ASIR将从2020年的13.01 / 10万下降到2030年的4.88 / 10万。结论预测到2030年，江苏省食管癌发病率将呈下降趋势，但食管癌负担仍很重。现有的预防和控制方法是有效的，需要保持下去。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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