Extreme heat trends and impacts in Savanna national parks of South Africa

Abstract

The South African National Parks situated within the Savanna biome face escalating threats from intensifying heatwaves and extreme heat, driven by climate change. This study examines the trends and the impacts of extreme heat events in Mapungubwe and Kruger National Parks using a mixed methods approach, integrating temperature data with surveys and interviews involving park personnel and management. The study uniquely focuses on the interplay between extreme heat and tourism in Savanna national parks, an underexplored area in climate and tourism research. The results reveal a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in the number of extreme heat days during the warmest quarter in Kruger National Park, while no significant trend was observed in Mapungubwe. However, extreme heat manifests in several negative impacts, including heat-induced stress and reduced operational efficiency among park employees. Ecological ramifications, inclusive of wildlife mortalities and declining avian populations were reported. Tourist visitation and recreational activities were adversely affected, with notable shifts in visitation patterns. A correlation between exceptionally high temperatures and heightened water and energy consumption also emerged. The study highlights the value of combining quantitative temperature trend analysis with qualitative stakeholder insights for a holistic understanding of extreme heat impacts. Recommendations include implementing heat-resilient infrastructure, adjusting work schedules for vulnerable employees, and adopting proactive adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of extreme heat. These findings offer critical insights for enhancing the resilience of national parks and sustaining nature-based tourism in the context of a warming climate.