Management strategy evaluation of stored grain using global sensitivity analysis: Part I – Allowable maximum variations of temperatures and moisture contents of canola

Abstract

To maintaining grain quality and quantity, stored grain should be stored at low temperatures and dry moisture contents with minimum variations of temperature and moisture content. Global sensitivity analysis was conducted to characterize these allowable variations by simulating different ranges of temperature, moisture content, and initial germination with different distributions of the simulated temperatures, moisture contents, and initial germinations. Mathematical models published in literature for predicting canola germination were coded in Symbiology and Simulink for conducting these simulations. Random and normal distributions of temperatures, moisture contents, and initial germinations were simulated. Simulations covered ranges of temperature (5–40 °C), moisture (6–12 %, wet basis), and initial germination (92–98 %) variations to assess their effects on germination reduction. Simulation results and global sensitivity analysis concluded that the allowable maximum variations of moisture content in stored canola granaries depended on the variation of temperatures, and vice versa. Any moisture variation would reduce the recommended safe storage time. The allowed maximum standard error of moisture contents for one third of the recommended safe storage time was 0.5, 0.5, and 0.1 percentage point at 18 ± 3, 23 ± 3, and 28 ± 3 °C, respectively. These findings provide critical guidelines for optimizing canola storage conditions to minimize spoilage risk.