Changing climate in Italian cities and Italian building regulations: Analysis focused on future climate change scenarios

Abstract

Nowadays, the comfort conditions need to be assured throughout buildings lifetime. The building stock is not designed to cope with the climate variations expected in the coming decades. In this context, the climate classification used by countries to define the climate differences among the various areas of the country is of great relevance. This study analyses the climate classification of Italy under both current and future climate change scenarios. The aim is to show the obsolescence of the current climate classification regarding climate change by adapting the degree-day methodology to the climate data of the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050 and 2100. The research shows that the degree-day variations predicted for the coming decades could totally change the configuration of the Italian climate zoning. By maintaining the current climate zoning in future scenarios, most municipalities would move at least one climate zone below, encouraging the thermal inefficiency of Italy's building stock in the coming decades and therefore, increasing the risk of energy poverty in the country.