Natural disasters and voting behavior under authoritarian regimes: Evidence from the Brazilian shrimp vote

Abstract

This paper explores the connection between natural disasters and protest voting against autocratic regimes, using data from the 1979–1983 drought in Brazil’s semi-arid region. We measure drought severity using deviations from historical water deficit means obtained from meteorological ground stations. Results indicate that adverse weather conditions have a negative impact on protest voting against the military regime. Additionally, disaster relief, income inequality, and social vulnerability measures do not show significant effects as potential mechanisms. However, we observe heterogeneous effects among areas with different shares of irrigated farmland, suggesting that economic vulnerability may be a driving factor behind the results.