Weapons and influence: Unpacking the impact of Chinese arms exports on the UNGA voting alignment

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102666

Xiaoyu He , Yawen Zheng , Yiwen Chen

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Abstract

Despite the research exploring factors shaping China’s influence, such causal influence from the perspective of Chinese arms transfers remains to be seen. In this study, we use arms exports and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting data from 140 non-OECD countries between 1990 and 2021 to estimate the causal effect of Chinese arms exports on the recipients’ voting alignments with China in the UNGA, with the voting alignment measured by the proportion of votes that a recipient casts in agreement with China. By using the interaction between the annual exchange rate and cross-country frequencies of receiving arms to construct an instrument, we isolate cleaner exogenous variations in Chinese arms exports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that Chinese arms exports lead to a significant increase in the share of votes cast in favor of China. We also offer plausible explanations for our findings, suggesting that arms recipients may be incentivized to align with China due to the strategic necessity of maintaining their ruling authority and the long-term dependence on Chinese arms supplies.

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武器与影响：解读中国武器出口对联合国大会投票路线的影响

尽管研究探索了影响中国影响力的因素，但从中国武器转让的角度来看，这种因果影响仍有待观察。在本研究中，我们使用1990年至2021年间140个非经合组织国家的武器出口和联合国大会（UNGA）投票数据来估计中国武器出口对受援国在联合国大会上与中国投票结盟的因果效应，投票结盟是通过受援国与中国达成一致的投票比例来衡量的。通过使用年度汇率和跨国接收武器频率之间的相互作用来构建一个工具，我们分离出中国武器出口的更清洁的外生变化。2SLS估计显示，中国武器出口导致投给中国的选票比例显著增加。我们还为我们的研究结果提供了合理的解释，表明由于维持其统治权威的战略必要性和对中国武器供应的长期依赖，武器接受国可能会被激励与中国结盟。

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来源期刊

European Journal of Political Economy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

10.00%

发文量

106

期刊介绍： The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).