Long-term hydroclimate trends in the Great Lakes basin: Are there hotspots of regional change?

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102347

Satbyeol Shin , Andrew D. Gronewold , Lauren M. Fry , Yi Hong , David Cannon , Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study Region

The Laurentian Great Lakes basin

Study focus

This study analyzed key hydroclimate components across the entire Laurentian Great Lakes basin, one of the largest freshwater basins on Earth and home to roughly 20% of all fresh, unfrozen surface water. The hydroclimate components analyzed included surface air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), snow water equivalent (SWE), runoff, and surface soil moisture from 1951 to 2020. Hydrological variables were simulated using regional customization of the Weather Research and Forecasting hydrological model (WRF-Hydro), and changes in the annual magnitude and seasonal variability (i.e. seasonality) of all variables were assessed.

New hydrological insights for the region

Our findings reveal significant spatial and temporal variations in hydroclimate variables across the basin. The Great Lakes basin is experiencing noteworthy changes in hydroclimate variables, including pronounced rises in surface air temperature, ET, and runoff (low flow), as well as declines in SWE. The distinct spatial patterns of changes in magnitude and seasonality are identified throughout the region. For instance, the Superior basin exhibits unique hydrological patterns, including an earlier peak in SWE and decreased high flow, both of which are influenced by its unique climatic and geographical conditions. This long-term analysis of hydroclimate trends provides valuable insights into historical hydrological changes and their implications for future conditions in the Great Lakes basin, emphasizing the need for localized studies and targeted management strategies.

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五大湖流域水文气候的长期趋势：是否存在区域变化热点？

研究区域研究重点本研究分析了整个劳伦森大湖盆地的关键水文气候成分，这是地球上最大的淡水盆地之一，约占所有新鲜未冻地表水的20%。分析的水文气候成分包括1951 - 2020年的地表气温、降水、蒸散发（ET）、雪水当量（SWE）、径流和地表土壤水分。利用气象研究与预报水文模型（WRF-Hydro）的区域定制模拟水文变量，并评估所有变量的年量级和季节变异（即季节性）的变化。我们的研究结果揭示了整个流域水文气候变量的显著时空变化。五大湖流域正在经历水文气候变量的显著变化，包括地表气温、ET和径流（低流量）的显著上升，以及SWE的下降。在整个区域，可以识别出不同的幅度和季节性变化的空间格局。例如，苏必利尔河流域表现出独特的水文模式，包括SWE峰值提前和高流量减少，这两者都受到其独特的气候和地理条件的影响。这种对水文气候趋势的长期分析为五大湖流域历史水文变化及其对未来条件的影响提供了有价值的见解，强调了本地化研究和有针对性的管理策略的必要性。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.