Spatio‐temporal Usutu virus model explains Eurasian blackbird Turdus merula population trends

IF 5.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Ecography Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI:10.1111/ecog.07759

Jurrian Van Irsel, Henk P. van der Jeugd, Willem F. de Boer, Kevin D. Matson, Judith M. A. van den Brand, Reina Sikkema, Marion P. G. Koopmans, Ruud P. B. Foppen

{"title":"Spatio‐temporal Usutu virus model explains Eurasian blackbird Turdus merula population trends","authors":"Jurrian Van Irsel, Henk P. van der Jeugd, Willem F. de Boer, Kevin D. Matson, Judith M. A. van den Brand, Reina Sikkema, Marion P. G. Koopmans, Ruud P. B. Foppen","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07759","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Emerging vector‐borne pathogens (VBPs) pose significant global health threats, occasionally causing widespread outbreaks with high wildlife mortality. Understanding climatic and anthropogenic drivers behind transmission dynamics in wildlife populations is key to mitigate health risks. Citizen science data may allow us to investigate the spread of pathogen outbreaks as it can be collected over a wide range within short time periods. In this study, we explored the use of wildlife mortality data to model the annual occurrence of VBPs. Making use of retrospective Eurasian blackbird Turdus merula mortality data collected within a citizen science program, we employed an ecological niche modelling framework to model the annual distribution of Usutu virus (USUV) in the Netherlands. Based on these modelled USUV occurrence probabilities, we assessed the impact of the USUV occurrence on blackbird populations. Our results reveal a rapid south–north spread of USUV across the Netherlands within three years with an average expansion rate of 91 km year‐1. This spread led to significant population declines in blackbirds, reducing population numbers by 30% compared to pre‐USUV levels. Our study demonstrated that citizen science bird mortality surveillance can generate useful data to model the spatial transmission intensity of VBP over time that follows the declines in wildlife populations. Higher winter and spring temperatures, which may have facilitated early development of mosquito populations and resulted in greater mosquito abundance later in the year, had a positive impact on the USUV occurrence estimates. While our approach proved successful in modelling pathogen distribution using a well‐monitored species like the blackbird, it may be less effective for pathogens that cause minimal wildlife mortality or affect species that are harder to detect. This study provides a first example of a spatio‐temporal estimation of USUV transmission intensity in Europe, offering a framework for investigating the annual impact of USUV outbreaks on wildlife populations.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecography","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07759","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Emerging vector‐borne pathogens (VBPs) pose significant global health threats, occasionally causing widespread outbreaks with high wildlife mortality. Understanding climatic and anthropogenic drivers behind transmission dynamics in wildlife populations is key to mitigate health risks. Citizen science data may allow us to investigate the spread of pathogen outbreaks as it can be collected over a wide range within short time periods. In this study, we explored the use of wildlife mortality data to model the annual occurrence of VBPs. Making use of retrospective Eurasian blackbird Turdus merula mortality data collected within a citizen science program, we employed an ecological niche modelling framework to model the annual distribution of Usutu virus (USUV) in the Netherlands. Based on these modelled USUV occurrence probabilities, we assessed the impact of the USUV occurrence on blackbird populations. Our results reveal a rapid south–north spread of USUV across the Netherlands within three years with an average expansion rate of 91 km year‐1. This spread led to significant population declines in blackbirds, reducing population numbers by 30% compared to pre‐USUV levels. Our study demonstrated that citizen science bird mortality surveillance can generate useful data to model the spatial transmission intensity of VBP over time that follows the declines in wildlife populations. Higher winter and spring temperatures, which may have facilitated early development of mosquito populations and resulted in greater mosquito abundance later in the year, had a positive impact on the USUV occurrence estimates. While our approach proved successful in modelling pathogen distribution using a well‐monitored species like the blackbird, it may be less effective for pathogens that cause minimal wildlife mortality or affect species that are harder to detect. This study provides a first example of a spatio‐temporal estimation of USUV transmission intensity in Europe, offering a framework for investigating the annual impact of USUV outbreaks on wildlife populations.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Ecography 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

11.60

自引率

3.40%

发文量

122

审稿时长

8-16 weeks

期刊介绍： ECOGRAPHY publishes exciting, novel, and important articles that significantly advance understanding of ecological or biodiversity patterns in space or time. Papers focusing on conservation or restoration are welcomed, provided they are anchored in ecological theory and convey a general message that goes beyond a single case study. We encourage papers that seek advancing the field through the development and testing of theory or methodology, or by proposing new tools for analysis or interpretation of ecological phenomena. Manuscripts are expected to address general principles in ecology, though they may do so using a specific model system if they adequately frame the problem relative to a generalized ecological question or problem. Purely descriptive papers are considered only if breaking new ground and/or describing patterns seldom explored. Studies focused on a single species or single location are generally discouraged unless they make a significant contribution to advancing general theory or understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes. Manuscripts merely confirming or marginally extending results of previous work are unlikely to be considered in Ecography. Papers are judged by virtue of their originality, appeal to general interest, and their contribution to new developments in studies of spatial and temporal ecological patterns. There are no biases with regard to taxon, biome, or biogeographical area.