Conditional Relative Survival of Gallbladder Cancer: A Population-Based Study in a High-Incidence Asian Country from 1999 to 2021.

Abstract

Background: Dynamic prognostic information is important for treatment decisions and consultations among patients with gallbladder cancer (GBC), given its poor prognosis, especially in the advanced stage. We aimed to investigate long-term conditional relative survival (CS) rates in patients with GBC in Korea, which has a notably high incidence of GBC.

Methods: Data regarding 40,774 individuals diagnosed with GBC between 1999 and 2021 were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry. CS was analyzed across strata, including stage as well as the first course of treatment.

Results: The overall 5-year relative survival rate at diagnosis, 3-year CS of 2-year survivors (the probability of surviving another 3 years among 2-year survivors), and 5-year CS of 5-year survivors were 29.9, 79.3, and 91.1%, respectively. Postoperatively, 94.4% (localized stage) and 76.5% (regional stage) of 2-year survivors survived for an additional 3 years. Moreover, 95.4% (localized stage) and 89.4% (regional stage) of 5-year survivors survived for an additional 5 years. The conditional probability of death within the first year after diagnosis increased gradually across age groups among overall patients, with the lowest (33.8%) and highest (67.7%) probabilities being in the 20-39 and ≥ 80 years age groups, respectively.

Conclusions: Greater than 75% of patients with regional-stage GBC who survive the initial 2 postoperative years survive for an additional 3 years. Unlike patients with regional-stage GBC, whose 5-year survival rates continue to decrease among 5-year survivors, patients with localized-stage GBC may not require follow-up beyond 5 postoperative years since their survival probability after 5 years exceeds 95%.