Regime Switching Model Estimates of the Impact of Financial Development on Renewable Energy Consumption: The Role of Geopolitical Risk in the Case of Emerging Economies

Abstract

Financial development and geopolitical risks are crucial for understanding the consumption of renewable energies (CREs), given the sustainability challenges of the global economy. This research examines the nonlinear impact of financial development on adopting renewable energies in 10 emerging countries facing geopolitical risks between 1985 and 2022. By employing two regime-switching approaches (panel threshold autoregressive (PTAR) and panel smooth transition autoregression (PSTAR)), the results indicate nonlinear correlations between domestic bank credit granted to the private sector and the adoption of renewable energies. The optimal threshold value of the PTAR model is 40.171, while those of the PSTAR model are 35.705 and 122.9. Below the thresholds of the PTAR and PSTAR models, financial development decreases the CREs. Beyond these thresholds, financial development promotes CRE through specific financial incentives, such as low-interest loans and tax credits for renewable energy projects, as well as the creation of specialized financial instruments, such as green bonds. Geopolitical issues have prompted governments to diversify their energy sources and intensify their investments in renewable energy to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on the volatile fossil fuel markets. Therefore, in terms of policy implications, financial education, the mitigation of geopolitical risks, and renewable energy goals must be priorities in national development efforts to promote sustainable economic growth.

JEL Classification: C23, C54, K32, Q43