Dynamic evolution and interaction mechanisms of socio-ecological systems and water constraints within an adaptive cycle framework: A case study of the Lower Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

The dynamic mechanisms by which water constraints (WC) regulate socio-ecological system (SES) adaptation remain underexplored, hindering effective water governance strategies. This study fills that gap by examining how WC modulates SES adaptability throughout the adaptive cycle—revealing its regulatory role, feedback pathways, and changing influence on SES resilience over time. By integrating adaptive cycle theory, catastrophe progression models, the DPSIR framework, and cloud-based assessment techniques, we develop a dynamic analytical framework that captures the nonlinear, multi-scale interactions between WC and SES evolution in river basins. Our results show that WC exerts negative pressures during conservation (K) and release (Ω) phases while triggering adaptive shifts during reorganization (α) and exploitation (γ) phases. In 70 % of cities, HSS and EES exhibit a synergistic adaptation pattern, although the strength and direction of their coupling vary with the cycle stage. Moreover, WC has asymmetrical effects by stimulating HSS growth while constraining EES, creating a competition-cooperation dynamic between socio-economic and ecological functions. We also identify a unidirectional causality from WC to SES, in contrast to the bidirectional relationships between WC and both HSS and EES, indicating reciprocal adaptation processes. Impulse response analysis further reveals that while SES resilience to WC improves over time, excessive WC stress can lead to long-term ecological trade-offs and instability. Overall, our findings challenge the traditional view of WC as a static constraint and instead position it as a dynamic driver of socio-ecological restructuring, offering a predictive framework for assessing SES resilience and providing actionable insights for adaptive water governance and sustainable urban planning in resource-scarce regions globally.