Evaluation of freight restructure to reduce carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta: A crisis-resolution model

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is a microcosm of China's high-quality socio-economic development, highlighting the influential role of transportation and the issue of carbon emission reduction. Given the complex relationship between thriving freight transportation and the carbon emission crisis, this study assesses the impact of freight structure adjustments on carbon emission reduction in the YRD using a crisis resolution model that combines bi-objective optimization (BOP) and logistic chaotic mapping (LCM). The dynamic Crisis Resolution Degree (CRD) metric evaluates carbon emission crisis resolution under different orientations. Results show that LCM improves model adaptability, aligning with real-world transportation dynamics. Freight adjustments and carbon emissions have non-linear interactions, with railway and air transportation being more flexible than road transportation. The YRD's future freight structure will shift to railway and waterway transportation, but road transportation will still play a key role. Efficiency-oriented solutions, combined with risk management, have high crisis resolution potential, while carbon reduction-oriented solutions, though environmentally beneficial, are less efficient. Recommendations include developing multimodal infrastructure, improving data monitoring, and implementing region-specific strategies.