Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102359

Anzhou Zhao , Wei Zhang , Lidong Zou , Sen Cao , Yunfeng Yue , Qirilatu Sa

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

The Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China.

Study focus

Understanding the propagation characteristics of droughts from meteorological to hydrological stages is crucial for effective early warning systems. However, these characteristics (time, probability, and threshold) remain unexplored under natural conditions. This study aims to fill this gap by studying the propagation characteristics of drought from the meteorological phase to the hydrological phase under natural conditions. Utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) to analyze meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China, using data from 1981 to 2018. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, copula probability models, and Bayesian causal frameworks are employed to investigate drought propagation characteristics.

New hydrological insights for the region

The study shows significant regional differences in the propagation time from meteorological to hydrological droughts, with shorter times in the northwest and longer times in the southeast. Additionally, the duration of droughts in spring and winter is generally longer. The drought propagation time has shown a significant increasing trend from 1981 to 2018, especially in the central and western regions. The probability of meteorological drought triggering hydrological drought increases with the severity level, and the thresholds for meteorological drought differ across various levels of hydrological drought. These findings highlight the importance of considering regional differences, seasonal variations, and the impact of climate change on drought trends in drought warning systems and water resource management.

查看原文本刊更多论文

海河流域自然条件下气象-水文干旱传播特征：时间、概率和阈值

研究区域：中国海河流域。研究重点了解干旱从气象阶段到水文阶段的传播特征对于建立有效的预警系统至关重要。然而，这些特征（时间、概率和阈值）在自然条件下仍然未被探索。本研究旨在通过研究自然条件下干旱从气象阶段到水文阶段的传播特征来填补这一空白。利用标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）和标准化径流指数（SRI）对1981 - 2018年海河流域气象水文干旱进行了分析。采用Spearman等级相关系数、联结概率模型和贝叶斯因果框架研究干旱传播特性。研究表明，气象干旱向水文干旱传播时间的区域差异显著，西北短，东南长。此外，春季和冬季的干旱持续时间通常更长。1981 - 2018年干旱传播时间呈显著增加趋势，特别是中西部地区。气象干旱触发水文干旱的概率随严重程度的增加而增加，不同水文干旱级别的气象干旱阈值不同。这些发现强调了在干旱预警系统和水资源管理中考虑区域差异、季节变化以及气候变化对干旱趋势的影响的重要性。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.