Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean

IF 2.4 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.006

M. Sharma , M. Mohapatra , P. Suneetha

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The performance of the operational extended range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department in the nil, low, moderate and high categories of probability of cyclogenesis has been evaluated based on 868 forecasts issued every Thursday for week 1 and week 2 for the Arabian Sea (AS), Bay of Bengal (BoB) and north Indian Ocean (NIO) as a whole during April 2018 to December 2023. The forecast is biased towards under-warning for low and moderate categories over the NIO, BoB & AS and towards over-warning for high categories over NIO and BoB in week 1. It is biased towards over-warning for moderate & high categories and under-warning for low category forecast over NIO and BoB for week 2. It is biased towards under-warning for low and high categories and over-warning for moderate category forecasts over AS in week 2. The Brier score (Brier skill score) for week 1 and week 2 are 0.051 (48.7 %) and 0.087 (8.6 %) over NIO respectively.

The association of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby waves (ERW) and Kelvin waves (KW) with genesis increases and that of low-frequency background waves (LW) and inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) decreases with an increase in the intensity of storms from depression to very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS). About 100 %, 92 %, 92 %, 92 % and 100 % of the cases of the genesis of VSCS & above category storms over the NIO are associated with stronger westerlies to the south, stronger easterlies to the north, convective phase of MJO, ERW and KW over the region of genesis.

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来源期刊

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

3.40%

发文量

184

审稿时长

30 weeks

期刊介绍： Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome. Scope of the journal includes: • Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies • Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings • Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones • Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones • Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones