Hypothetical demand for menthol and non-menthol cigarettes and substitution among people who smoke menthol cigarettes: A within subjects between group randomized controlled trial using the experimental tobacco marketplace

Abstract

Introduction

The Food and Drug Administration has recently released a final rule enacting a characterizing flavor ban in cigarettes and cigars. Similar efforts have been proposed for e-cigarettes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a potential menthol cigarette ban, a fruit and mint flavored e-cigarette ban, and the interaction of the two among current adults who smoke menthol cigarettes.

Methods

The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace was used to evaluate the within subject purchasing of participants who smoke menthol major name brand (n = 64) and Native manufactured (n = 37) cigarettes when fixed price alternatives and only: 1) menthol cigarettes and mint and fruit flavored e-cigarettes, 2) non-menthol cigarettes and mint and fruit flavored e-cigarettes, 3) menthol cigarettes and tobacco flavored e-cigarettes, and 4) non-menthol cigarettes and tobacco flavored e-cigarettes were available.

Results

Participants who smoked major name brand and Native manufactured menthol cigarettes showed greater cigarette demand (Q₀) and less sensitivity to price (α) when menthol cigarettes were available. For those who smoked major name brand cigarettes, the only substitute the emerged was moist snuff when non-menthol cigarettes and fruit and mint e-cigarettes were available. No substitutes were found for those who smoked Native manufactured cigarettes in any flavor availability condition.

Conclusions and relevance

Demand for cigarettes is higher when preferred flavor is available. Substitutes for cigarettes among people who smoke menthol cigarettes are minimal and may indicate that removal of menthol from the landscape may not push people who smoke menthol cigarettes to products other than cigarettes.

Data Availability

The data utilized in this paper are available by request from corresponding author, AJQ, given the participants in this study did not consent to have their data shared with the public. Following publication of primary and secondary results, the corresponding author will provide de-identified data and a data dictionary for requests.

ClinicalTrials.gov ID and title

NCT03897530; Experimental Tobacco Marketplace in Regulating Flavored Tobacco Products in Menthol Cigarette Smokers