The Impact of Geopolitics Risk and Uncertainty on Cryptocurrency: Inference on Ukraine Russian War

IF 2.7 Q2 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Public Affairs Pub Date : 2025-04-06 DOI:10.1002/pa.70024

Riadh Benammar, Anas Elmelki, Nadia Arfaoui, Adel Boubaker

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates how the geopolitical risk (GPRD), economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and Twitter economic uncertainty (TEU) related to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict can affect cryptocurrency returns (Bitcoin [BTC], Ethereum [ETH], Ripple [XRP], Dogecoin [DOGE], Litecoin [LTC], Cardano [ADA], BNB, and TRON [TRX]) over the period ranging from January 1, 2020, to April 24, 2023. Using the Spectral Breitung Candelon causality and wavelet coherence methods, interesting findings are reported. This study reports noteworthy findings. First, we observe that during the armed battle, ADA, BNB, DOGE, LTC, TRX, and XRP appear as hedges against GPRD. However, we found a negative impact on BTC and ETH. Second, the results show that EPU and TEU have no effect on cryptocurrency, respectively. These findings provide a comprehensive overview of cryptocurrency fluctuations during the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine. Finally, findings show that only ADA, BNB, DOGE, LTC, TRX, and XRP could be used as hedging tools during times of uncertainty. These results have practical implications for cryptocurrency investors and elements influencing its returns, especially during uncertain times.

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地缘政治风险和不确定性对加密货币的影响：对乌俄战争的推论

本文研究了与俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突相关的地缘政治风险（GPRD）、经济政策不确定性（EPU）指数和Twitter经济不确定性（TEU）如何影响加密货币回报（比特币[BTC]、以太坊[ETH]、瑞波币[XRP]、狗狗币[DOGE]、莱特币[LTC]、卡尔达诺[ADA]、BNB和波场[TRX]）在2020年1月1日至2023年4月24日期间。利用谱Breitung candron因果关系和小波相干方法，报道了一些有趣的发现。这项研究报告了一些值得注意的发现。首先，我们观察到，在武装战斗中，ADA、BNB、DOGE、LTC、TRX和XRP作为对冲gpr的工具出现。然而，我们发现了对BTC和ETH的负面影响。其次，结果表明EPU和TEU对加密货币没有影响。这些发现提供了乌克兰持续冲突期间加密货币波动的全面概述。最后，研究结果表明，在不确定时期，只有ADA、BNB、DOGE、LTC、TRX和XRP可以用作对冲工具。这些结果对加密货币投资者和影响其回报的因素具有实际意义，特别是在不确定时期。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Public Affairs PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION-

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

3.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Public Affairs provides an international forum for refereed papers, case studies and reviews on the latest developments, practice and thinking in government relations, public affairs, and political marketing. The Journal is guided by the twin objectives of publishing submissions of the utmost relevance to the day-to-day practice of communication specialists, and promoting the highest standards of intellectual rigour.