Crude oil maritime transportation network resilience assessment based on optimal strategies

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104659

Wan Su, Lingye Zhang, Jing Lu, Jie Zhu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions underscore the need to assess and strengthen resilience in shipping networks. This study develops an optimization model that determines the optimal sequences of node disruptions and recoveries, capturing both maximum resistance and recovery capacities of the crude oil maritime transportation network. By simulating traffic redistribution under transportation efficiency constraints, the model quantifies how disruptions propagate and how swift recoveries can be achieved. Applied to an actual network constructed using tanker AIS and crude oil trade data, the model outperforms traditional strategies in minimizing losses during disruptions and accelerating recovery. Sensitivity analysis reveals that cumulative disruptions at minor nodes can exceed the impact of a single major chokepoint. Additionally, the sequence of recovery does not necessarily align with the disruption sequence. These findings can guide stakeholders in prioritizing interventions and formulating robust disaster response strategies for maritime transportation.

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基于优化策略的原油海上运输网络弹性评价

地缘政治紧张局势和全球供应链中断凸显了评估和加强航运网络弹性的必要性。本研究开发了一个优化模型，该模型确定了节点中断和恢复的最佳顺序，同时捕获了原油海上运输网络的最大阻力和恢复能力。通过模拟交通效率约束下的交通再分配，该模型量化了交通中断的传播方式和恢复速度。将该模型应用于使用油轮AIS系统和原油贸易数据构建的实际网络中，该模型在最小化中断期间的损失和加速恢复方面优于传统策略。敏感性分析表明，小节点的累积中断可能超过单个主要阻塞点的影响。此外，恢复的顺序不一定与中断的顺序一致。这些发现可以指导利益攸关方确定干预措施的优先次序，并制定强有力的海上运输灾害应对战略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.