Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103749

Piergiorgio Alessandri, Andrea Gazzani

引用次数: 0

Abstract

How do shocks to the supply of natural gas affect output and inflation? To answer this question, we construct an instrument using daily news on the European gas market and employ it within a VAR model of the euro area. We find that negative supply shocks have sizable stagflationary effects and accounted for nearly 50 percent of the increase in core prices observed between 2021 and 2023. The propagation to core prices appears to be larger compared to oil shocks, suggesting that the structural differences between the two markets matter from an aggregate perspective.

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天然气和宏观经济：并非所有的能源冲击都是一样的

对天然气供应的冲击如何影响产出和通胀？为了回答这个问题，我们利用欧洲天然气市场的每日新闻构建了一个工具，并将其应用于欧元区的VAR模型。我们发现，负面供应冲击具有相当大的滞胀效应，占2021年至2023年间观察到的核心价格涨幅的近50%。与石油危机相比，对核心价格的传导似乎更大，这表明从总体角度来看，两个市场之间的结构性差异很重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.