Analysis of motorcyclist injury severities in motorcyclist violation crash on suburban roads of China: accommodating temporal instability and the unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances.

IF 2.3 4区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI:10.1080/17457300.2025.2487649

Yuntao Ye, Jie He, Xintong Yan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study analysed motorcyclist violation (MV) crashes on suburban roads of China to investigate how determinants affect MV crash injury severity and explore the temporal stability of determinants. Crash data from Xi'an, China (2015-2018) were utilized to investigate three MV crash injury categories: no injury, minor injury and severe injury. Motorcyclist-related, crash-related, roadway-related, environment-related and time-related characteristics were analysed utilizing a group of random parameters multinomial logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances. The temporal instability was measured by performing likelihood ratio tests. Marginal effects were calculated to further illustrate the temporal variations of these factors. The study found an overall temporal instability, with some violations like alcohol-impaired riding, speeding, and unlicensed riding having significant effects on MV crash injury severity. Additionally, the study revealed a significant risk compensation mechanism of riders under adverse riding conditions. The findings provided insights and recommendations for suburban motorcycle crash prevention strategies.

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中国郊区道路摩托车违规碰撞事故中摩托车手受伤严重程度分析：兼顾时间不稳定性以及均值和方差中未观察到的异质性。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

13.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion (formerly Injury Control and Safety Promotion) publishes articles concerning all phases of injury control, including prevention, acute care and rehabilitation. Specifically, this journal will publish articles that for each type of injury: •describe the problem •analyse the causes and risk factors •discuss the design and evaluation of solutions •describe the implementation of effective programs and policies The journal encompasses all causes of fatal and non-fatal injury, including injuries related to: •transport •school and work •home and leisure activities •sport •violence and assault