Analysis of motorcyclist injury severities in motorcyclist violation crash on suburban roads of China: accommodating temporal instability and the unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances.

IF 2.3 4区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-03 DOI:10.1080/17457300.2025.2487649

Yuntao Ye, Jie He, Xintong Yan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study analysed motorcyclist violation (MV) crashes on suburban roads of China to investigate how determinants affect MV crash injury severity and explore the temporal stability of determinants. Crash data from Xi'an, China (2015-2018) were utilized to investigate three MV crash injury categories: no injury, minor injury and severe injury. Motorcyclist-related, crash-related, roadway-related, environment-related and time-related characteristics were analysed utilizing a group of random parameters multinomial logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances. The temporal instability was measured by performing likelihood ratio tests. Marginal effects were calculated to further illustrate the temporal variations of these factors. The study found an overall temporal instability, with some violations like alcohol-impaired riding, speeding, and unlicensed riding having significant effects on MV crash injury severity. Additionally, the study revealed a significant risk compensation mechanism of riders under adverse riding conditions. The findings provided insights and recommendations for suburban motorcycle crash prevention strategies.

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中国郊区道路摩托车违规碰撞事故中摩托车手受伤严重程度分析：兼顾时间不稳定性以及均值和方差中未观察到的异质性。

本研究以中国郊区道路摩托车碰撞事故为研究对象，探讨决定因素对摩托车碰撞伤害严重程度的影响，并探讨决定因素的时间稳定性。利用中国西安2015-2018年的碰撞数据，对无伤、轻伤和重伤三种MV碰撞损伤类别进行调查。利用一组均值和方差均具有异质性的随机参数多项logit模型，对摩托车相关、碰撞相关、道路相关、环境相关和时间相关的特征进行了分析。时间不稳定性通过执行似然比检验来测量。计算了边际效应，以进一步说明这些因素的时间变化。该研究发现了整体的时间不稳定性，一些违规行为，如酒后骑行、超速和无证骑行，对MV碰撞损伤的严重程度有显著影响。此外，研究还揭示了骑手在不利骑行条件下的显著风险补偿机制。研究结果为郊区摩托车碰撞预防策略提供了见解和建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

13.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion (formerly Injury Control and Safety Promotion) publishes articles concerning all phases of injury control, including prevention, acute care and rehabilitation. Specifically, this journal will publish articles that for each type of injury: •describe the problem •analyse the causes and risk factors •discuss the design and evaluation of solutions •describe the implementation of effective programs and policies The journal encompasses all causes of fatal and non-fatal injury, including injuries related to: •transport •school and work •home and leisure activities •sport •violence and assault