Spatial analysis of receptivity and vulnerability to arbovirosis transmission in Ecuador between 2015 and 2019: An ecological study.

Abstract

Introduction: Arboviruses such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya represent a threat to public health in several South American countries, including Ecuador. Accurate identification of local risk areas and detection of critical transmission points are crucial for the effective planning of vector control programs, particularly in the management of the effectively planning vector control programs, particularly in managing mosquito. This study aimed to characterize the variables of receptivity and vulnerability to arboviral transmission at the cantonal level, and to identify hotspots in Ecuador between 2015 and 2019.

Methods: Environmental and sociodemographic data at the cantonal level were used to perform a spatial analysis, which included a spatial autocorrelation analysis to identify transmission hotspots at the parish level. GeoDa software was used to detect these hotspots.

Results: The provinces of Ecuador with the highest levels of receptivity and vulnerability were Manabí, Guayas, El Oro and Esmeraldas. These levels were mainly related to temperature, altitude, and limited access to clean water services. Fifty-six cantons were identified as high transmission areas. Nine parishes were classified as transmission hotspots for five consecutive years.

Conclusions: The spatial analysis allowed for precisely identifying the more susceptible and vulnerable areas for arbovirus transmission in Ecuador. The persistence of transmission hotspots in certain municipalities was evidenced, influenced by environmental and sociodemographic factors. This evidence is key to adapt and improve vector surveillance and control strategies in the most affected regions.