Advancements in ecological niche models for forest adaptation to climate change: a comprehensive review.

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to the health and functions of forest ecosystems. Ecological niche models have emerged as crucial tools for understanding the impact of climate change on forests at the population, species, and ecosystem levels. These models also play a pivotal role in developing adaptive forest conservation and management strategies. Recent advancements in niche model development have led to enhanced prediction accuracy and broadened applications of niche models, driven using high-quality climate data, improved model algorithms, and the application of landscape genomic information. In this review, we start by elucidating the concept and rationale behind niche models in the context of forestry adaptation to climate change. We then provide an overview of the advancements in occurrence-based, trait-based, and genomics-based models, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of species responses to climate change. In addition, we summarize findings from 338 studies to highlight the progress made in niche models for forest tree species, including data sources, model algorithms, future climate scenarios used and diverse applications. To assist researchers and practitioners, we provide an exemplar data set and accompanying source code as a tutorial, demonstrating the integration of population genetics into niche models. This paper aims to provide a concise yet comprehensive overview of the continuous advancements and refinements of niche models, serving as a valuable resource for effectively addressing the challenges posed by a changing climate.