TCO analysis of commercial vehicles considering refined temperature impacts across various provinces in China

Abstract

In the face of climate change, a global initiative to mitigate emissions is conspicuous, with China striving for carbon neutrality and targeting commercial vehicle emissions. This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the total cost of ownership (TCO) for five types of commercial vehicle models in various provinces of China under three fuel options: diesel, electric, and hydrogen fuel cell. The study systematically quantifies the cost differences and applicability of different fuel types and vehicle models at the provincial level, as well as the nuanced impact of temperature variations. The results indicate that electric trucks with a capacity of 4.5-ton (4.5 t) and 49-ton (49 t) exhibit significantly better cost-effectiveness compared to diesel and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs). Specifically, the transportation cost per hundred kilometers for a 4.5 t electric truck is only half that of a diesel truck, while the 49 t electric truck is approximately 100 CNY less than a diesel truck and 63 % less than a hydrogen fuel cell truck. However, the 18-ton (18 t) electric truck, due to its higher purchase cost, shows advantages only in a few regions. In terms of buses, both electric and hydrogen fuel cell models have higher transportation costs than diesel vehicles due to their higher fuel and purchase costs. Although FCEVs currently have higher costs, their economic competitiveness will be enhanced when the price of hydrogen drops below 40 CNY/kg. The study also found that the main factors affecting TCO are fuel costs and depreciation costs. Diesel vehicles are sensitive to fluctuations in fuel prices, while the TCO of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is primarily influenced by electricity prices and temperature changes. High or low temperatures can affect the proportion of fuel costs in TCO by up to 4 %–6.56 %. The economic viability of FCEVs in each province is highly dependent on the price of hydrogen.