Dynamic effect of climate change on flood damage cost in the Andean region of Colombia using an ARDL-ECM model and climate change projections

Abstract

Natural disasters in Colombia related with climate fluctuations have high economic and social impacts, including the loss of human lives, infrastructure, agricultural production and livestock. Areal and riverine floods are the most common natural disasters in the country given its topography and heavy rainfall seasons. Flooding occurrences have increased during the last decades due the climate change and climate variability with prolonged periods with precipitation also affected by global phenomena as El Niño and La Niña. This research uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) to describe the dynamics of meteorological variables, such as precipitation, relative humidity and air temperature, and their effects on floods in the Colombian Andean region by using monthly flood damage costs during the period from October 2006 to December 2023. The ARDL-ECM cointegration test indicates a statistically significant relationship among the meteorological variables analyzed and flood damage cost. With the estimated parameters for long and short-run effects, flood cost is projected for future decades using two climate change scenarios for meteorological variables. These simulations provide a perspective of the future impact of floods in the study region and allow discussion of current flood prevention and action policies to mitigate these results. The imminent increase of flood events under climate change found in this study provides even more evidence on the necessity of strengthening current efforts to reduce emissions and deforestation in Colombia.