Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.035

Shuiyang Chen , Bin Meng , Bingcheng Qiu , Haibo Kuang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We employ textual analysis on 1793935 news articles from seven newspapers to comprehensively measure adverse maritime events and associated risks across seven dimensions, resulting in the development of a news-based Maritime Risk Index (MRI). We validate the professionalism, effectiveness, and robustness of MRI in capturing maritime risks. The MRI adversely affects various aspects of the macroeconomic market performance, monetary policy, employment, and industrial production. Higher maritime risk predicts a decrease in the output of the shipping sector, reducing shipping capacity and significantly impacting global maritime trade activities. MRI innovations include crucial information about port congestion and surging freight rates, playing a key role in explaining and foreshadowing port congestion. It serves as a leading (price discovery) indicator in the dry bulk and container shipping markets and exhibits a bidirectional causal relationship with the tanker shipping market. Our findings not only advance the understanding of maritime transport system risks and their interaction with macroeconomic, but also offer practical applications for improving transport policy and practice.

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.