Modeling the distribution of the invasive snail Physella acuta in China: Implications for ecological and economic impact

Abstract

Background

The invasive freshwater snail Physella acuta poses significant threats to the ecological environment, public health safety, and the agricultural and forestry economy. Gaining insight into their geographical spread in China under current and future climate scenarios is crucial for effective monitoring and control strategies against this invasive species.

Methods

Global distribution data of P. acuta were collected and screened using “ENMtool”; environmental variables were screened based on contribution of environmental variables, jackknife test and variable correlation analysis using MaxEnt 3.4.1 and GraphPad Prism 8; “kuenm” package in R 4.0.4 software was used to calculate and adjust model parameters; the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution range of P. acuta in China under different climate scenarios; ArcGIS 10.7 was used to process and visualize the results.

Results

A total of 2012 P. acuta distribution points were screened, and the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest season, precipitation in March and November were used to construct the MaxEnt model with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.918. According to the prediction, P. acuta is currently widely spread across the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guizhou Province, Yunnan Province, Chongqing Municipality, and areas proximate to the Yangtze River Basin in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain, which encompass 10.22 % of China's terrestrial area. Under future climate projections, the suitable habitats for P. acuta in southern regions are expected to contract, whereas those in northern regions are anticipated to remain relatively stable. As a result, the overall distribution center is likely to shift marginally northward.

Conclusion

With the future climate change, the total suitable habitats of P. acuta in China showed a shrinking trend, and the shrinkage was more significant in the southern low-latitude suitable habitats. To mitigate its impact on China's ecosystem and the loss caused by P. acuta invasion, relevant departments should increase monitoring and prompt control, and implement efficient preventive and eradication measures.