Analysis and prediction of the burden of COPD in original BRICS countries from 1990 to 2050.

Abstract

Background: The Original BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) face similar challenges of a significant increase in the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Research design and methods: This analysis, based on data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021), examined trends in the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of COPD in Original BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021. Linear regression was used to estimate the annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rates (ASR), and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the COPD burden in 2050.

Results: The disease burden increased with age in 2021, particularly after 45 years old, with significant gender disparities. From 1990 to 2021, the EAPC for age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates decreased, with China experiencing the sharpest decline. The COPD burden is predicted to be alleviated across Original BRICS countries in 2050, although men will still be more affected than women.

Conclusion: Despite the substantial improvements, the burden of COPD remains substantial in Original BRICS countries. In 2050, COPD is expected to more pronouncedly affect middle-aged and elderly populations, as well as people exposed to tobacco and environmental pollution.