Temporal and Spatial Trends of CO2 Emissions and the Emission Reduction Paths of Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 1960 to 2060

Abstract

Reducing CO₂ emissions is essential for sustainable development but faces challenges like politics, resources, technology, markets, and energy structure. This study uses UN and World Bank data from 1960 to 2020 to analyze CO₂ emissions trends and factors in 50 belt and road (B&R) countries. Methods include fitting techniques, decoupling theory, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The data are assessed using fitting methods, decoupling theory, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The CO₂ emissions of countries in southeast and central Asia show a fluctuating upward trend, whereas a slow downward trend is shown in eastern and southern Europe. The epicenter of CO₂ emissions in B&R began to shift to the southeast in the 1990s, but it has remained consistently in the northwest of B&R geometric center. Key B&R emission factors are population density, urban population, and hydroelectric power. To reduce B&R emissions, three recommendations are proposed: 1) to establish a B&R alliance and promote the development of low-carbon industries in B&R; 2) to realize coordinated development of the upstream and downstream communities in the B&R industrial chain; and 3) countries in the B&R region shall foster the development and utilization of clean energy while focusing on stable economic development.