Yanjun Yang, Bo Tao, Alex C. Ruane, Chaopeng Shen, David S. Matteson, Rémi Cousin, Wei Ren
{"title":"Widespread Advances in Corn and Soybean Phenology in Response to Future Climate Change Across the United States","authors":"Yanjun Yang, Bo Tao, Alex C. Ruane, Chaopeng Shen, David S. Matteson, Rémi Cousin, Wei Ren","doi":"10.1029/2024JG008266","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Crop phenology regulates seasonal carbon and water fluxes between croplands and the atmosphere and provides essential information for monitoring and predicting crop growth dynamics and productivity. However, under rapid climate change and more frequent extreme events, future changes in crop phenological shifts have not been well investigated and fully considered in earth system modeling and regional climate assessments. Here, we propose an innovative approach combining remote sensing imagery and machine learning (ML) with climate and survey data to predict future crop phenological shifts across the US corn and soybean systems. Specifically, our projected findings demonstrate distinct acceleration patterns—under the RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5 scenarios, corn planting, silking, maturity, and harvesting stages would significantly advance by 0.94/1.66, 1.13/2.45, 0.89/2.68, and 1.04/2.16 days/decade during 2021–2099, respectively. Soybeans exhibit more muted responses with phenological stages showing relatively smaller negative trends (0.59, 1.08, 0.07, and 0.64 days/decade under the RCP 4.5 vs. 1.24, 1.53, 0.92, and 1.04 days/decade under the RCP 8.5). These spatially explicit projections illustrate how crop phenology would respond to future climate change, highlighting widespread and progressively earlier phenological timing. Based on these findings, we call for a specific effort to quantify the cascading effects of future phenology shifts on crop yield and carbon, water, and energy balances and, accordingly, craft targeted adaptive strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":16003,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences","volume":"130 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JG008266","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Crop phenology regulates seasonal carbon and water fluxes between croplands and the atmosphere and provides essential information for monitoring and predicting crop growth dynamics and productivity. However, under rapid climate change and more frequent extreme events, future changes in crop phenological shifts have not been well investigated and fully considered in earth system modeling and regional climate assessments. Here, we propose an innovative approach combining remote sensing imagery and machine learning (ML) with climate and survey data to predict future crop phenological shifts across the US corn and soybean systems. Specifically, our projected findings demonstrate distinct acceleration patterns—under the RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5 scenarios, corn planting, silking, maturity, and harvesting stages would significantly advance by 0.94/1.66, 1.13/2.45, 0.89/2.68, and 1.04/2.16 days/decade during 2021–2099, respectively. Soybeans exhibit more muted responses with phenological stages showing relatively smaller negative trends (0.59, 1.08, 0.07, and 0.64 days/decade under the RCP 4.5 vs. 1.24, 1.53, 0.92, and 1.04 days/decade under the RCP 8.5). These spatially explicit projections illustrate how crop phenology would respond to future climate change, highlighting widespread and progressively earlier phenological timing. Based on these findings, we call for a specific effort to quantify the cascading effects of future phenology shifts on crop yield and carbon, water, and energy balances and, accordingly, craft targeted adaptive strategies.
期刊介绍:
JGR-Biogeosciences focuses on biogeosciences of the Earth system in the past, present, and future and the extension of this research to planetary studies. The emerging field of biogeosciences spans the intellectual interface between biology and the geosciences and attempts to understand the functions of the Earth system across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Studies in biogeosciences may use multiple lines of evidence drawn from diverse fields to gain a holistic understanding of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems and extreme environments. Specific topics within the scope of the section include process-based theoretical, experimental, and field studies of biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, atmosphere-, land-, and ocean-ecosystem interactions, biomineralization, life in extreme environments, astrobiology, microbial processes, geomicrobiology, and evolutionary geobiology