Assessing decarbonization pathways by weighing carbon mitigation efficiency and risks in China's energy system

Abstract

As the world's leading developing nation, China faces significant challenges in balancing carbon reduction with socioeconomic development. Selecting the most effective decarbonization pathway is crucial for achieving China's carbon neutrality target by 2060. However, previous studies primarily focused on carbon mitigation efficiency while overlooking the operational risks associated with energy system transitions. This study couples a CGE model (CHINAGEM) and an energy system model (EnergyPLAN) through a soft-linkage method to comprehensively evaluate the environmental, economic, and energy impacts of various decarbonization pathways in China. By balancing carbon mitigation efficiency against operational risks, the study identifies the most suitable strategies for carbon neutrality. The findings show that increasing electricity generation and greater renewable energy penetration heighten power generation fluctuations, raising operational risks. Although pathways emphasizing renewable energy and end-use electrification can achieve higher carbon mitigation efficiency, they also pose greater operational risks to energy system. Implementing energy efficiency policies can mitigate these risks. Therefore, pathways that effectively balance high mitigation efficiency with lower operational risk are the most suitable for achieving China's carbon neutrality goals.