Quantifying Flood Risk Evolution Under Reservoir Operations: A Comprehensive Framework for Hazard, Vulnerability, and Loss Risk

IF 2.2 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Ting Zhou, Teng Lin, Rongliang Cheng, Guoqing Wang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters globally, underscoring the need for robust flood risk assessment methodologies. Reservoirs significantly alter flood risk patterns by regulating the spatial and temporal dynamics of flooding. However, current research on flood risk under reservoir operations primarily focuses on static risk probabilities, lacking a quantitative analysis of the evolutionary process of flood risk, which limits targeted risk management strategies. This study proposes a comprehensive framework for quantifying flood risk evolution under reservoir operations, integrating hazard, vulnerability, and loss risk assessment. Key issues including multi-site flood combinations, hydrograph shapes, damage vulnerability, and reservoir operating rules are systematically integrated. The framework is validated using a case study of three reservoirs on a tributary of the Huai River in eastern China, employing single, parallel, and multiple reservoir configurations. Results demonstrate the framework's ability to quantitatively elucidate the evolution of flood risk under different reservoir operations. Comparative analyses reveal the influences of reservoir structure, operating rules, and spatial location on flood risk patterns, providing targeted insights for risk mitigation. The proposed framework offers implications for flood risk assessment and supports the planning and management of flood control projects.

量化水库运行下的洪水风险演变:危害、脆弱性和损失风险的综合框架
洪水是全球最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,因此需要强有力的洪水风险评估方法。水库通过调节洪涝时空动态,显著改变洪涝风险格局。然而,目前对水库调度下洪水风险的研究主要集中在静态风险概率上,缺乏对洪水风险演化过程的定量分析,这限制了有针对性的风险管理策略。本研究提出了一个综合框架,用于量化水库运行下的洪水风险演变,整合危害、脆弱性和损失风险评估。系统地整合了多站点洪水组合、水文曲线形状、破坏脆弱性和水库运行规则等关键问题。以中国东部淮河某支流的三个水库为例,采用单水库、并联水库和多水库配置,对该框架进行了验证。结果表明,该框架能够定量地阐明不同水库运行条件下洪水风险的演变。对比分析揭示了水库结构、运行规则和空间位置对洪水风险模式的影响,为风险缓解提供了有针对性的见解。建议的架构有助进行洪水风险评估,并有助防洪工程的规划和管理。
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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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