{"title":"The Uncertainty in Energy and Cryptocurrency Markets: Is Gold Really a Safe Haven?","authors":"Shuangshuang Chang, Meng Qin, Chi Wei Su","doi":"10.1111/manc.12510","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>Investigating gold's safe-haven status is crucial to stabilising energy and cryptocurrency markets. To capture the dynamic relationships between energy-related uncertainty (ERU), gold prices (GP), and cryptocurrency policy uncertainty (CPOU), this study employs the TVP-SV-VAR methodology. Through quantitative analysis, we find ERU has favourable and unfavourable effects on GP. The favourable impact underscores gold's safe-haven role against energy market uncertainty. At the same time, the negative impact contradicts this view and theoretical models, likely due to the U.S. dollar's value and gold's hedging performance against other uncertainties. CPOU, however, positively impacts GP, supporting gold's safe-haven characteristics against uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market and aligning with theoretical predictions. Gold's safe-haven status in the cryptocurrency market is comparably more consistent but slightly less significant. Additionally, this study validates the findings by substituting CPOU with cryptocurrency price uncertainty (CPRU), confirming their robustness. Given the high volatility in energy and cryptocurrency markets, this article offers valuable insights for authorities to maximise profits and ensure stable growth.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"93 3","pages":"254-266"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Manchester School","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/manc.12510","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Investigating gold's safe-haven status is crucial to stabilising energy and cryptocurrency markets. To capture the dynamic relationships between energy-related uncertainty (ERU), gold prices (GP), and cryptocurrency policy uncertainty (CPOU), this study employs the TVP-SV-VAR methodology. Through quantitative analysis, we find ERU has favourable and unfavourable effects on GP. The favourable impact underscores gold's safe-haven role against energy market uncertainty. At the same time, the negative impact contradicts this view and theoretical models, likely due to the U.S. dollar's value and gold's hedging performance against other uncertainties. CPOU, however, positively impacts GP, supporting gold's safe-haven characteristics against uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market and aligning with theoretical predictions. Gold's safe-haven status in the cryptocurrency market is comparably more consistent but slightly less significant. Additionally, this study validates the findings by substituting CPOU with cryptocurrency price uncertainty (CPRU), confirming their robustness. Given the high volatility in energy and cryptocurrency markets, this article offers valuable insights for authorities to maximise profits and ensure stable growth.
期刊介绍：
The Manchester School was first published more than seventy years ago and has become a distinguished, internationally recognised, general economics journal. The Manchester School publishes high-quality research covering all areas of the economics discipline, although the editors particularly encourage original contributions, or authoritative surveys, in the fields of microeconomics (including industrial organisation and game theory), macroeconomics, econometrics (both theory and applied) and labour economics.
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