Vulnerability assessment of International Container Shipping Networks under national-level restriction policies

Abstract

This study develops a systematic methodology to assess the vulnerability of International Container Shipping Networks (ICSNs) amid national-level restriction policies potentially caused by the increasing international trade disputes and health crises. It designed a holistic vulnerability assessment framework that explores the impact of two disruption scenarios—direct and complete trade restrictions, which incorporates new measures of vulnerability and centrality to evaluate a country's susceptibility to international restrictions and its impact on other countries' ICSNs. Subsequently, correlation and dependence analyses are conducted to explore relationships between vulnerability/centrality and eight international network characteristics, identifying key factors. Finally, an enhanced k-means algorithm classifies the impact degrees of various countries' restrictive policies on a country of interest, and examines the effects of both partial and collective disruptions of identified critical countries. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness in revealing the varied impacts of different restrictive policies on distinct performance metrics, identifying critical factors that influence vulnerability and centrality, and precisely classifying different countries' restriction impacts to help identify key influential countries. These insights not only deepen understanding of ICSNs under national-level disruptions but also aid in optimizing international shipping from an operational perspective and providing strategic guidance for proactive disruption management from a preventative standpoint.